Mission Critical Weekly
Cost insights on semiconductor fabs and data centers.
Week of October 19 – October 23, 2026
What's behind the moves
This week the hyperscalers took the hit. The six data center names lost about $484 billion (-3.7%), while the four chipmakers ended flat (+$9.8 billion, +0.2%) after last week's 13% drop. Net, the ten builders gave up about $475 billion. Most of the damage came on Thursday, Oct 22, when the Nasdaq fell 2.6%, its worst day since June. Brent crude rose 3% to $113 a barrel on reports of renewed strikes on Iran, and investors re-priced the cost of financing the AI buildout. Invezz
Meta (-9.4%) set the tone. Q3 revenue rose 26% to $64.6 billion, but capital spending hit a record $34.9 billion for the quarter, more than the business generated in cash. Free cash flow was negative $2.1 billion, against positive $10.6 billion a year earlier. Meta narrowed its 2026 capex guidance to $135 to $145 billion (from $130 to $145 billion) and gave no 2027 figure beyond plans to keep "investing aggressively" in AI. The quarter also carried a $9.9 billion legal charge. Meta
Alphabet (-6.0%) had no company-specific news and fell with the group ahead of its Oct 28 report. CoreWeave (-11.6%) dropped 10% on Thursday alone as debt and financing-cost worries returned.
TSMC (+1.4%) was the only gainer. Micron and Samsung ended flat and Intel slipped 3.2% after a volatile week.
Why it matters for builders: the market is now pricing the cash cost of AI buildings into the hyperscalers too, not just the borrowers. Meta's answer was to hold its 2026 program, not cut it, which keeps this year's starts intact. The bigger signal comes next week. Microsoft and Alphabet report Oct 28, Amazon and Intel Oct 29, and Samsung Oct 29. Their 2027 capex comments will set the tone for next year's construction starts.
Switchgear is the electrical cost to watch. Producer prices for switchgear are up 13.3% from a year ago and about 89% above January 2020, and they're still climbing. Transformer prices, by contrast, have cooled to 8.7% annual growth, though lead times for large units remain three years or more. NextMSC (BLS data)
What that means on an estimate: carry a separate escalation line for medium- and low-voltage gear on data center and fab electrical packages. Pricing that held at award a year ago is unlikely to hold at buyout.
Copper eased to $6.47/lb, down about 1% on the week.
No new producer price data this week. September figures, with metals up 25% to 30% year over year, remain the latest. October data is due in November.
Pipeline Watch: What's Breaking Ground
Data Center
Amazon drops its Ashburn campus. Amazon withdrew its plan for four data center buildings totaling more than 800,000 sf on George Washington University's former Loudoun County campus, which it bought for $427 million. Under a deal brokered by the county board, Amazon will donate about 25 acres to the county, put $5 million into a housing trust fund, and help rezone the rest for mixed use. Data centers supplied roughly 39% of Loudoun's budget in fiscal 2026. Fortune
Memphis pauses data center construction. The City Council rejected a one-year moratorium and instead passed a 135-day halt on construction of new data centers, timed to run alongside the mayor's 90-day impact study. xAI has two more data centers under construction in the Memphis area. CBS News
A push for self-supplied power. President Trump posted that new large data centers are "mandated" to make their own electricity and sell any excess to the grid. No executive order accompanied the post. Earlier this month, FERC rejected efforts to require bring-your-own generation on the largest US grid. If it becomes policy, on-site generation moves from an option to a line item. Bisnow
Microsoft exits a UK project over power. Microsoft pulled out of Nscale's planned Loughton, Essex campus, billed as the UK's largest AI data center, after the utility said the grid connection wouldn't be ready on schedule. City AM
Semiconductors
Intel, Fab 62, Arizona. Intel has started installing production equipment, with volume output targeted for late 2028. In Ohio, crews set the first major structural truss for the first fab, still scheduled to open in 2030 to 2031. TrendForce
GlobalFoundries, Malta, New York (worth tracking). GlobalFoundries isn't on our tracked list, but it was selected to operate two new 300mm fabs funded by up to $21 billion from Japan under a US-Japan trade deal. Groundbreaking on the first fab is expected later this year, with opening in 2029. Each fab is planned for about 900,000 wafers a year. Construction Dive
Earnings to watch. Intel and Samsung report Oct 29. Listen for Ohio pacing, any memory tenant at Intel's Ohio site, and Samsung's second Taylor, Texas fab.